Housing Research Digest: Week of September 28, 2026

This week’s research digest looks at what’s actually moving in housing data nationally, and what it does and doesn’t mean for Kane and Kendall counties.

National inventory keeps climbing, but the Midwest isn’t where it’s happening

Nationally aggregated active housing inventory rose 5.6% year-over-year between September 2025 and September 2026, according to housing researcher Lance Lambert at ResiClub, using Realtor.com data. That’s the third straight month the growth rate has accelerated. But only ten states are back above pre-pandemic inventory levels once you adjust for household growth, and Illinois isn’t one of them. Lambert’s own research has pointed for months to the Midwest and Northeast as the regions where active inventory remains most limited, while Sun Belt and Mountain West markets that overbuilt during the pandemic boom are the ones driving the national number up. For Fox Valley, that means the “buyers are gaining leverage everywhere” headlines making the rounds this fall don’t translate directly to Aurora, Naperville, Geneva, or the surrounding towns. Kane and Kendall counties sit in the pocket of the country that’s stayed comparatively tight.

Buyer demand is softening, by most accounts, but it’s sentiment, not a verdict

A quarterly survey of 208 real estate agents nationwide, conducted by ResiClub in partnership with Zoodealio, found 63% of agents report lower buyer demand than a year ago, with the Midwest reporting the sharpest pullback at 74%. At the same time, 49% of agents say seller urgency is higher than it was a year ago. Only 30% of agents now expect home prices to rise over the next 12 months, down from 39% in the same survey a year earlier. Worth noting: this is a survey of agent perception, not a measure of actual closed transactions, and it was co-produced with a cash-offer platform that has its own interest in a narrative of motivated sellers. That doesn’t make the findings wrong, but it’s useful context before treating it as settled fact. Directionally, though, if agents in a region that’s historically stayed tight are reporting the sharpest demand pullback in the country, that’s worth watching here over the next couple of months.

Mortgage rates and the Fed: relief looks further away, not closer

The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate climbed to 7.28% as of October 1, its highest level in nearly three years, as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% on stronger economic data and persistent inflation. Market pricing on Federal Reserve policy, as of late September, pointed toward the possibility of further rate increases rather than cuts at the Fed’s upcoming meetings. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee added his own observation late last month: he described a “record divergence between the vibes and the hard data,” arguing that stable underlying economic numbers are being overshadowed by increasingly negative public sentiment, and suggested the Fed should weigh that sentiment less heavily in its decisions. None of this amounts to a forecast for where rates go next, but it’s a useful corrective for buyers who are waiting on the assumption that relief is imminent.

Builder margins are compressing, and two of the country’s biggest builders disagree on why

Lennar, the nation’s second-largest homebuilder, posted its weakest third-quarter gross margin since 2009, and its average sales price is down more than 24% from the 2022 peak, split roughly a third mix-shift and two-thirds actual price cuts and incentives. Lennar’s CEO told analysts that construction labor availability is “starting to become more of an issue,” pointing to immigration enforcement and data-center construction competing for electricians and skilled trades in some markets. KB Home’s CEO, on the same week’s earnings call, said the opposite: his company hasn’t seen labor tightening yet, though material costs tied to fuel have ticked up. That disagreement between two major builders is itself informative. Separately, Illinois’ own data-center buildout is projected to generate tens of billions in investment over the next decade if addressed properly, which means this same competition for construction labor and land could show up locally, not just in the Sun Belt markets builders were discussing on those calls.

A slower-moving story: building-materials distribution is consolidating fast

Away from this week’s immediate numbers, the building-products distribution industry is consolidating quickly, with one company alone spending roughly $30 billion on acquisitions in roofing, lumber, and insulation since 2023, prompting Home Depot and Lowe’s to spend a combined $27 billion countering with their own purchases. This won’t change a listing conversation this month, but as fewer, larger distributors gain pricing power over materials like roofing and insulation, it’s a cost input worth watching for anyone planning a renovation or new build over the next few years.

Closer to home

A few genuinely local items from this week: Aurora’s first “smart neighborhood” development got funding approved for its final nine homes. Chicago’s renters’-rights ordinance overhaul stalled again as both sides continue seeking a compromise. And in the south suburbs, a Calumet City shopping center landed in receivership amid a foreclosure lawsuit, a reminder that commercial real estate stress is showing up in pockets of the wider Chicago area even as the residential side holds up comparatively well out here.

What we’re watching next

The Fed’s next policy meeting is October 28, and market pricing going into it leaned toward another possible rate increase rather than a cut. The November jobs report, typically out the first Friday of the month, tends to move mortgage rates directly. And it’s worth watching whether Chicago’s renters’-rights negotiations resurface at City Council in the coming weeks.

If you’re trying to figure out what any of this means for your own plans, whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to read the market correctly, feel free to reach out. Happy to talk through where your specific situation stands.