Housing Research Digest: Week of October 19, 2026

Each week I read the housing and mortgage research that reaches my inbox and sort out what it means for the Fox Valley. This week was light on local data, so most of this comes from a few sources. I note where each figure comes from, and I flag where a source has a stake in the market.

The national picture: prices are splitting by county

Lance Lambert of ResiClub compared home prices county by county from September 2025 to September 2026. In the West, San Francisco County rose 15.5% and Adams County, Colorado fell 2.6%. In the Southwest, Jefferson County, Texas rose 4.1% and Williamson County, Texas, the northern suburbs of Austin, fell 4.8%. In the Southeast, Pulaski County, Arkansas rose 4.0% and Lee County, Florida fell 3.5%. In the Northeast, Westchester County, New York rose 7.8% and Baltimore City fell 3.9%. Among the 40 largest Midwest metro areas, Wayne County, Michigan rose 6.0% and Marion County, Indiana fell 0.8%.

What it means here: Kane and Kendall counties are not in these tables, so this letter does not give an Illinois county number. The Midwest spread is still a reminder that the region does not move as one piece. The weakest counties in the letter are mostly in the Sun Belt and Mountain West. Our local numbers, below, do not follow that pattern.

Both sides: Those who see prices holding up point to the size of the gains in the strongest counties. Those who are more cautious point out that the weakest counties cluster in fast-built metros in Texas, Florida and Colorado. A single 12-month window can also reflect one season or one price tier. The letter does not name the data provider in the text I read.

Fox Valley supply is tight, and Kendall is looser than Kane

The REALTOR Association of the Fox Valley reported September 2026 numbers from Midwest Real Estate Data. For its area, the median sold price was $409,995, up 8% from a year earlier. Closed sales were 772, up 12%. Homes sat on the market an average of 36 days, two more than last year. The area had 1.8 months of inventory, compared with 4.8 months nationally, according to the sources the association cites.

Kane County had 562 sales, a median of $415,000, 34 days on market and 1.6 months of inventory. Kendall County had 210 sales, a median of $496,395, 42 days on market and 2.3 months of inventory.

What it means here: Kendall, which includes Yorkville and Oswego, has more homes for sale and more time on the market than Kane, which includes Aurora, Geneva, Batavia, St. Charles, North Aurora and Sugar Grove. The report does not explain why Kendall’s median is higher. One month with 210 sales is a small sample, so treat the gap as something to watch. Naperville is mostly in DuPage County, which this report does not cover.

Both sides: The association has a stake in how the market is described, and its newsletter calls this a time of affordability pressure. A Chicago-area brokerage’s October update says buyers have more negotiating power on certain homes. That is an opinion about select listings, not a measure of the whole market. Both can be true at once.

Rates eased a little, but they are still well above a year ago

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, as of October 22, put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32%. That is down from 7.40% the week before. A year ago it was 6.19%. The 15-year fixed rate was 6.68%.

What it means here: On the local median price of $409,995 with 20% down, the principal and interest payment would be about $2,253 a month at 7.32%. At 6.19%, the same loan would be about $2,007. That is roughly $246 a month more. These are my own calculations, and they leave out taxes and insurance.

Both sides: One week is a small move. Whether rates keep easing depends on the Federal Reserve and on bond markets. The Fed’s October meeting is the next checkpoint.

A new federal order aimed at monthly costs

Last week the President signed an executive order called Decreasing Housing Costs for the American People. The White House fact sheet lists four parts. The Federal Housing Finance Agency will set up a pilot to cancel mortgage insurance premiums once borrowers reach an equity level, though the fact sheet does not say what that level is. A title-insurance waiver for refinances will become permanent. The Departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs are directed to lower rates on their home loans, with no amounts listed. A task force will look at factory-built homes.

What it means here: Mortgage insurance is generally tied to loans with less than 20% down. The fact sheet does not say which loans the pilot would cover. Until the agency publishes its rules, this does not change anyone’s monthly payment. Refinance borrowers would see the title-insurance change in their closing costs.

Both sides: Supporters say the order lowers monthly costs and fees for borrowers. Mortgage and title insurers have their own financial stake in how these programs are priced. The question I would ask is who absorbs the lost premium and title revenue, and whether that cost comes back later through pricing. No named critic makes that argument in the sources I read, so treat it as my reasoning.

What we are watching next

Freddie Mac’s next rate survey, expected Thursday, October 29. The Fed’s October meeting. Any first rules for the mortgage insurance pilot, which have no date yet. A fair housing webinar for Aurora housing providers on November 5.

If you are weighing a move in one of our nine towns, I am happy to walk through what this means for your situation.